Key
Conference logos indicate auto bid holders. If the conference logo is fused to the team logo, the team won its conference tournament and earned the auto bid.
Colors next to seed numbers represent movement relative to Saturday’s bracket: gold (new entrant), green (up 1+ seed line), red (down 1+ seed line)
Ins and Outs (6)
IN: Long Beach State (Big West), NC State (ACC), Oregon (Pac-12), Saint Peter’s (MAAC), UAB (American), Yale (Ivy)
OUT: Fairfield (MAAC), Princeton (Ivy), St. John’s, South Florida (American), UC Davis (Big West) Virginia
Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Northwestern (53)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: South Carolina (49)
Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Indiana State (29)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: St. John’s (26)
22 single-bid conferences
I did my number crunching and final analysis (other than shifting the bottom four seed lines depending on the Ivy, Atlantic 10, and American title games). Over the last few days, I’ve been digging into the numbers of my biggest misses over the past couple of seasons to use that information in this year’s projection, which is why you’ll see some shifts compared to last night. That post will give you a good rundown of why we are where we are.
The teams that should be worried the most are Michigan State (no bad losses, but 9-14 in Quad 1 and 2 games), Texas A&M (still, since they’re 13-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 7-4 in Quad 3 and 4 contests), TCU (352nd of 362 in non-conference scheduling, but no bad losses), and Colorado (10-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but only four wins over teams in the field: a regular season sweep of Oregon, a home win over Washington State, and a home win over Grambling).
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if one of the Big East teams snuck in or if Virginia got in because of its 10-10 record in Quad 1 and 2 games (with no bad losses), even if the Cavaliers’ inability to score is beyond painful at this point.
Sunday’s Schedule
All times are Eastern.
Ivy Championship: Brown vs. Yale, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Bears are on a seven-game win streak, including an 84-81 overtime win over the Bulldogs in New Haven back on March 9th. I currently have Yale as a 13, but Brown would end up on line 16 and might spare Howard the trip to Dayton.
Atlantic 10 Championship: Duquesne vs. VCU, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Rams can clinch a second consecutive bid, while the Dukes last qualified in 1977. VCU is slotted on line 12 (but are not an at-large candidate). Duquesne would likely replace the Rams in that spot with a win.
SEC Championship: Florida vs. Auburn, 1 p.m. (ESPN)
The Tigers were promoted to the 3 line, while the Gators moved up to a 5. I wouldn’t expect that to change no matter what happens because these Sunday afternoon power-conference finals rarely move the needle for the Committee, if ever.
American Championship: Temple vs. UAB, 3:15 (ESPN)
Currently, the Blazers are slotted as a 13, but at 15-19 against Division I opponents, the Owls are a possible 16 seed with a win.
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Illinois, 3:30 (CBS)
It’s a similar story in Minneapolis for the Fighting Illini (a 3 currently) and Badgers (a 5). I wouldn’t expect much of a change with this very late tip.
There will be one last bracket projection, right before the Selection Show.
NEXT UP IN MEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNC Basketball: The Heels are ranked No.10 in ESPN way-too-early rankings
Expectations for Illinois’ freshmen in the 2024-25 season
More Cooper Flagg Select Team Video
Zach Edey impresses in his NBA debut
Former Badgers Nigel Hayes and Micah Potter named to USA Basketball Select Team
Aaron Harrison and Nate Sestina weigh in on Mark Pope
Key
Conference logos indicate auto bid holders. If the conference logo is fused to the team logo, the team won its conference tournament and earned the auto bid.
Colors next to seed numbers represent movement relative to Saturday’s bracket: gold (new entrant), green (up 1+ seed line), red (down 1+ seed line)
Ins and Outs (6)
IN: Long Beach State (Big West), NC State (ACC), Oregon (Pac-12), Saint Peter’s (MAAC), UAB (American), Yale (Ivy)
OUT: Fairfield (MAAC), Princeton (Ivy), St. John’s, South Florida (American), UC Davis (Big West) Virginia
Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Northwestern (53)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: South Carolina (49)
Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Indiana State (29)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: St. John’s (26)
22 single-bid conferences
I did my number crunching and final analysis (other than shifting the bottom four seed lines depending on the Ivy, Atlantic 10, and American title games). Over the last few days, I’ve been digging into the numbers of my biggest misses over the past couple of seasons to use that information in this year’s projection, which is why you’ll see some shifts compared to last night. That post will give you a good rundown of why we are where we are.
The teams that should be worried the most are Michigan State (no bad losses, but 9-14 in Quad 1 and 2 games), Texas A&M (still, since they’re 13-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 7-4 in Quad 3 and 4 contests), TCU (352nd of 362 in non-conference scheduling, but no bad losses), and Colorado (10-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but only four wins over teams in the field: a regular season sweep of Oregon, a home win over Washington State, and a home win over Grambling).
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if one of the Big East teams snuck in or if Virginia got in because of its 10-10 record in Quad 1 and 2 games (with no bad losses), even if the Cavaliers’ inability to score is beyond painful at this point.
Sunday’s Schedule
All times are Eastern.
Ivy Championship: Brown vs. Yale, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Bears are on a seven-game win streak, including an 84-81 overtime win over the Bulldogs in New Haven back on March 9th. I currently have Yale as a 13, but Brown would end up on line 16 and might spare Howard the trip to Dayton.
Atlantic 10 Championship: Duquesne vs. VCU, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Rams can clinch a second consecutive bid, while the Dukes last qualified in 1977. VCU is slotted on line 12 (but are not an at-large candidate). Duquesne would likely replace the Rams in that spot with a win.
SEC Championship: Florida vs. Auburn, 1 p.m. (ESPN)
The Tigers were promoted to the 3 line, while the Gators moved up to a 5. I wouldn’t expect that to change no matter what happens because these Sunday afternoon power-conference finals rarely move the needle for the Committee, if ever.
American Championship: Temple vs. UAB, 3:15 (ESPN)
Currently, the Blazers are slotted as a 13, but at 15-19 against Division I opponents, the Owls are a possible 16 seed with a win.
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Illinois, 3:30 (CBS)
It’s a similar story in Minneapolis for the Fighting Illini (a 3 currently) and Badgers (a 5). I wouldn’t expect much of a change with this very late tip.
There will be one last bracket projection, right before the Selection Show.
NEXT UP IN MEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNC Basketball: The Heels are ranked No.10 in ESPN way-too-early rankings
Expectations for Illinois’ freshmen in the 2024-25 season
More Cooper Flagg Select Team Video
Zach Edey impresses in his NBA debut
Former Badgers Nigel Hayes and Micah Potter named to USA Basketball Select Team
Aaron Harrison and Nate Sestina weigh in on Mark Pope
Key
Conference logos indicate auto bid holders. If the conference logo is fused to the team logo, the team won its conference tournament and earned the auto bid.
Colors next to seed numbers represent movement relative to Saturday’s bracket: gold (new entrant), green (up 1+ seed line), red (down 1+ seed line)
Ins and Outs (6)
IN: Long Beach State (Big West), NC State (ACC), Oregon (Pac-12), Saint Peter’s (MAAC), UAB (American), Yale (Ivy)
OUT: Fairfield (MAAC), Princeton (Ivy), St. John’s, South Florida (American), UC Davis (Big West) Virginia
Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Northwestern (53)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: South Carolina (49)
Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Indiana State (29)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: St. John’s (26)
22 single-bid conferences
I did my number crunching and final analysis (other than shifting the bottom four seed lines depending on the Ivy, Atlantic 10, and American title games). Over the last few days, I’ve been digging into the numbers of my biggest misses over the past couple of seasons to use that information in this year’s projection, which is why you’ll see some shifts compared to last night. That post will give you a good rundown of why we are where we are.
The teams that should be worried the most are Michigan State (no bad losses, but 9-14 in Quad 1 and 2 games), Texas A&M (still, since they’re 13-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 7-4 in Quad 3 and 4 contests), TCU (352nd of 362 in non-conference scheduling, but no bad losses), and Colorado (10-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but only four wins over teams in the field: a regular season sweep of Oregon, a home win over Washington State, and a home win over Grambling).
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if one of the Big East teams snuck in or if Virginia got in because of its 10-10 record in Quad 1 and 2 games (with no bad losses), even if the Cavaliers’ inability to score is beyond painful at this point.
Sunday’s Schedule
All times are Eastern.
Ivy Championship: Brown vs. Yale, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Bears are on a seven-game win streak, including an 84-81 overtime win over the Bulldogs in New Haven back on March 9th. I currently have Yale as a 13, but Brown would end up on line 16 and might spare Howard the trip to Dayton.
Atlantic 10 Championship: Duquesne vs. VCU, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Rams can clinch a second consecutive bid, while the Dukes last qualified in 1977. VCU is slotted on line 12 (but are not an at-large candidate). Duquesne would likely replace the Rams in that spot with a win.
SEC Championship: Florida vs. Auburn, 1 p.m. (ESPN)
The Tigers were promoted to the 3 line, while the Gators moved up to a 5. I wouldn’t expect that to change no matter what happens because these Sunday afternoon power-conference finals rarely move the needle for the Committee, if ever.
American Championship: Temple vs. UAB, 3:15 (ESPN)
Currently, the Blazers are slotted as a 13, but at 15-19 against Division I opponents, the Owls are a possible 16 seed with a win.
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Illinois, 3:30 (CBS)
It’s a similar story in Minneapolis for the Fighting Illini (a 3 currently) and Badgers (a 5). I wouldn’t expect much of a change with this very late tip.
There will be one last bracket projection, right before the Selection Show.
NEXT UP IN MEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNC Basketball: The Heels are ranked No.10 in ESPN way-too-early rankings
Expectations for Illinois’ freshmen in the 2024-25 season
More Cooper Flagg Select Team Video
Zach Edey impresses in his NBA debut
Former Badgers Nigel Hayes and Micah Potter named to USA Basketball Select Team
Aaron Harrison and Nate Sestina weigh in on Mark Pope
